Normally I have been posting my market updates on my Facebook page in the first week of every month. From now on I will also post these updates here on the new bradr blog. Revised from Facebook:

 

-------------------

All this talk about the Vancouver sellers market receding - how about here in the Fraser Valley?

Well, the June numbers are in and as predicted, the sales-to-listing ratios are holding steady throughout the Valley. Year-to-year comparisons suggest we are on par with 2011 and benchmark prices are up slightly 3.6%.

However, many are looking to the fall market to see what sort of effect the new mortgage rates and Vancouver's slowdown will have on the outlying areas.

Abbotsford, Langley, and Cloverdale hold steady, more or less, year after year, with the greatest variances found in North and South Surrey/White Rock.

Market Breakdown:

ABBOTSFORD (Detached homes)
Inventory: 6.5 Months (Buyers Market)
Last June: 6.3 Months
Benchmark Price: $432,000 (+3.6% from 2011)


CLOVERDALE (Detached homes)
Inventory: 4.1 Months (Sellers Market)
Last June: 3.7 Months
Benchmark Price: $572,200 (+3.4% from 2011)


LANGLEY (Detached homes)
Inventory: 4.9 Months (Balanced Market)
Last June: 4.2 Months
Benchmark Price: $541,200 (+/- 0% from 2011)


SURREY CENTRAL (Detached homes)
Inventory: 5.3 Months (Balanced Market)
Last June: 4.5 Months
Benchmark Price: $565,900 (+5.5% from 2011)


WHITE ROCK/SOUTH SURREY (Detached homes)
Inventory: 6.3 Months (Buyers Market)
Last June: 3.6 Months
Benchmark Price: $882,900 (+5.9% from 2011)


For any additional municipalities or property types, please contact me directly. 604-530-4111 or email bradrichert@macrealty.com

 

Read full post

You hear these terms often. Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? My readers will likely understand my aversion to market speculation (which will probably come more apparent in the weeks to come), but reading the cold hard facts and explaining the present market is definitely something that you should expect your REALTOR® to do. The general idea is basic. A buyer’s market is when there are more sellers than there are buyers, lessening demand and usually reducing prices. A seller’s market is when there are more buyers than sellers, increasing demand and prices.

 

While that is obviously oversimplified even in theory, it does lead to the practical problem of gauging the market. How do we know that there are more buyers than sellers? It isn’t like there is a daily poll out there asking random households if they are looking to buy – and even if there was, what does “looking to buy” even mean? When are you looking to buy? Do you have the funds to buy? How serious are you? So when a REALTOR® says that we are are in a buyers market or a sellers market, where are they getting that from?

 

Generally speaking, at at least in our area, we look to the sales-to-listing ratio. That is, in one month, how many properties sold compared to how many properties were on the market. We then compare that to some imaginary breakpoints that someone has decided at what ratio is a “buyers market”, a “balanced market”, or a “sellers market.” Different organizations will use the same numbers, but different breakpoints.

 

Here are two pertinent examples: the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board offers suggested ratio breaks of 0-18% as a “buyers market”. This means that for every 100 homes on the market, between 0 and 18 sold. A balanced market is between 18-22% and a sellers market is over 22%. Generally speaking, if you hear that it is a “hot” market, we are looking at ratios in the mid to high 20s. A “soft market” will probably be in the single digits. The second example I would like to point out is through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Although similar, they suggest a buyers market is between 0-15%, a balanced market is 15-20% and a seller’s market is over 20%. The general idea is there though.

 

Diving deeper still, we live in a big country with a lot of different product. I often say there is no such thing as a “Canadian housing market”. I sometimes joke that there is the Vancouver market and then there is the “rest of Canada” market. In truth, there are many Canadian housing markets. Further to that, one product – say detached homes – may be hot in the same community that townhome numbers are in the dumps. Why is this important? What if someone led you to believe that because we are in a “hot” market, and we were (overall), you decided to try selling your townhome. But townhomes aren’t selling. The detached homes and condos were pulling up the numbers. Don’t you think that might weigh in your decision to sell? Or buy?

 

Part of the reason I am writing about buyers and sellers markets is to showcase our current situation in the Fraser Valley. Over the last two months we have seen two headlines when it comes to our present market: huge variations between locales and huge variations between product type.

 

For the month of June, the entire Fraser Valley sales-to-listing ratio was 16% – a slight buyer’s market, right? But let’s break that down a bit. For detached homes, the ratio was 22% – jumping the balanced right into a slight seller’s market. Townhouses in the area were also at 22%. Which means that condos must be pulling down the number – and they are, a slow 12%.

 

But what happens when we look at individual communities? The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board covers Abbotsford, Mission, Langley, Surrey, White Rock, and North Delta. Often, these numbers look pretty similar. But what about June? Abbotsford’s overall sales to listing ratio was at 15%, but White Rock’s was 23%! What’s in 50km? So it might be misleading to tell someone in White Rock that their board is experiencing a buyer’s market, no? The numbers don’t lie, but oversimplified data won’t do anyone any good.

 

My home of Langley can show the other extreme variation going on right now. Want to sell your detached home in Langley? Probably won’t take too long if it’s priced right – ratio was 24% in June! Think that’s good? 3 in every 10 townhomes in Langley sold in Langley. That’s right, a 30% sales to listing ratio (a fuller story might be how many of those are in new developments vs. resale…). So what about those Langley condos? There are a bunch being developed right now, so the demand must be there, right? Wrong. 10.3%. Just over 1 sale for every 10 listing. Even slower than May’s 12.9%. So why all the development? Well, remember development takes time. Just last year in June of 2010, the Langley condo market was at 17%. Over-saturation? Maybe. Or maybe the people who normally bought condos – young couples, are now unable to meet new mortgage standards. Hmm. Or maybe investors/speculators who normally could pick up a few new condos to rent/flip can’t do it because of the updated mortgage restrictions. Or maybe all three.

 

Point is, be in the know. The media is going to take the best headline possible. If you are needing to or interested in buying or selling, ask your REALTOR® to zoom in on the pertinent data.

Read full post
Categories:   Abbotsford | Abbotsford East, Abbotsford Real Estate | Abbotsford West, Abbotsford Real Estate | accepted offer | advertising | affordability | Agassiz, Agassiz Real Estate | agency | Aldergrove | Aldergrove Langley, Langley Real Estate | amortization | autism | backup offer | Bedford Landing | Bradner, Abbotsford Real Estate | Brookswood Langley, Langley Real Estate | Burke Mountain, Coquitlam Real Estate | buyers | buyers market | buying | Canyon Springs, Coquitlam Real Estate | Cedar Hills, North Surrey Real Estate | Central Abbotsford, Abbotsford Real Estate | Chilliwack E Young-Yale, Chilliwack Real Estate | Chilliwack Mountain, Chilliwack Real Estate | Chilliwack W Young-Well, Chilliwack Real Estate | Clayton, Cloverdale Real Estate | Cloverdale | Cloverdale BC, Cloverdale Real Estate | CMHC | completion | contract of purchase and sale | contracts | conveyancing | debt | Downtown VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | East Newton, Surrey Real Estate | Eastern Hillsides, Chilliwack Real Estate | education | Elgin Chantrell, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | finances | for sale by owner | Fort Langley | Fort Langley, Langley Real Estate | Fraser Heights, North Surrey Real Estate | Fraser Valley | Fraserview VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | fundraiser | government | Grandview Surrey, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | gross debt service ratio | Guildford, North Surrey Real Estate | Hazelmere, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | home evaluation | investing | June 2012 | King George Corridor, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | Langley | Langley City, Langley Real Estate | loan-to-value | market analysis | market update | marketing | markets | MLS | mortgage rates | mortgages | Murrayville, Langley Real Estate | negotiations | open house | Parkinsons | Port Kells, North Surrey Real Estate | Promontory, Sardis Real Estate | qualifying buyers | real estate cycle | real estate history | renting | revocation | Royal Heights, North Surrey Real Estate | rules & regulations | sales-to-listing ratio | Salmon River, Langley Real Estate | Sardis East Vedder Rd, Sardis Real Estate | schedule A | sellers | sellers market | selling | Simon Fraser Univer., Burnaby North Real Estate | speculation | statistics | Sullivan Station, Surrey Real Estate | Sunshine Hills Woods, N. Delta Real Estate | Surrey | Vancouver | Walnut Grove, Langley Real Estate | Whalley, North Surrey Real Estate | White Rock | White Rock, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | Willoughby Heights, Langley Real Estate